This time of year, Tim Cross pays close attention to his leads. “From November to January, there won't be many calls,” says Cross, owner of Merrick Construction, a $5.3-million remodeling and custom construction company in Rumson. N.J. “But by mid-January it should pick up. I usually book enough jobs by March to carry me through until fall.”

Cross also checks in with a number of architects with whom he often works. “They get the leads before I do,” says Cross, who can gauge how busy he'll be based on how busy the architects are.

But sometimes, the signs of the times are even closer to home. Cross recently stopped at Rumson's well-known Brennan's Deli for his usual cup of tea, only to find that the regular price of $1.25 had gone up to $1.50. For Cross, the portent was clear: “Maybe I need to raise my prices, too,” he says.