The demand nationwide for residential roofing products will rise 4% per year through 2020 to reach 147 million squares worth $10.4 billion, the Freedonia Group forecast Aug. 8.
That 4% rise per year between 2015 and 2020 is nearly four times greater than the 1.1% annual increase in demand between 2010 and 2015, the Cleveland-based research group said. The weak economy and a torpid new-home market depressed demand earlier in this decade, but now the steady increase in new-home construction plus improved lending conditions will spur sales from here on out.
Demand for roofing products to be used in re-roofing work--roughly three-quarters of the entire market--will rise 3.4% per year through 2020 after having declined 0.9% annually between 2010 and 2015. Meanwhile, demand for roofing products related to new construction, which had risen at an 11.2% annual rate from 2010 to 2015, will rise 5.9% annual from 2015 through 2020.
In area rather than value terms, asphalt shingles take up 84% of the market. This category will see demand rise 3.6% per year between 2015 and 2020 after having gained just 0.8% the previous five years. "Laminated asphalt shingles, which have supplanted conventional three-tab shingles as the leading product type in the US, will continue to see gains through 2020," Freedonia said. "Homeowners have increasingly selected these products because of their favorable aesthetic properties. Furthermore, laminated shingles resist damage caused by high winds and impacts, promoting their use in coastal regions subject to intense storm activity.
Freedonia predicts metal roofing products and roofing tiles will see the most rapid gains through 2020, powered in part by outsized growth in the South and West. In general, steep-slope products other than asphalt will enjoy 6.4% annual increases in demand through 2020 following 5.5% yearly increases between 2010 and 2015.
As for low-slope roofing products, such as bituminous membranes, Freedonia predicts 5.0% annual increases in demand to 2020 after having decline 0.9% annual the previous five years.
Freedonia's entire 195-page report on the market is available for sales for $4,900.